About the model

BaseballPredict estimates the probability that a team wins a given game. It is built on the same proven pipeline as our sumo and snooker sites: a temperature-scaled ELO rating blended with Glicko-2 (which tracks how certain each rating is), with a gradient-boosted correction layer planned once enough match data accumulates.

Home advantage

Each team carries an ELO+Glicko rating per competition. The home side gets a rating bonus (tuned per league); neutral-site games drop it. Baseball games are decisive, so the ensemble gives a clean home/away split.

Scope & data

Games come from ESPN's public baseball endpoints. The intended scope is baseball beyond MLB; in practice ESPN carries no NPB or KBO data, so the live model covers the two non-MLB competitions it does provide: the World Baseball Classic and the Caribbean Series.

Performance

The performance page tracks calibration — Brier score, log loss and accuracy — walk-forward over the completed games, with a held-out window so the model is scored on games it never trained on.

These are model probabilities for entertainment and analysis, not betting advice.